Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Critics’ Begin Chiming In, ‘Tis the Season

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Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions are back, and just in time as critics’ groups with nominations and wins have kicked off in earnest. In just a week’s time we’ve gotten nominations for the Spirit Awards and HCA and winners from the Gothams, NYFCC, NBR, Michigan and Atlanta plus BIFAs and the AFI Top 10. And it’s only the beginning.

In this short period, the actress races have found some early solid frontrunners in Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) in Best Actress and Supporting Actress, respectively. [See the 2023/2024 Leaderboard here] Best Actor and Supporting Actor are casting wide nets and both Best Picture and Best Director are also seeing some wealth spreading at the moment with Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Past Lives and Barbie all finding some love. Anatomy of a Fall is dominating the International Feature Film wins, a category it isn’t even eligible for at the Oscars. Could there be a bit of spite for France’s choice at play? Maybe, but probably a small factor as the film was already a proven critics’ favorite since its Palme d’Or win at Cannes in the summer.

While those films and performances are establishing themselves in the race, it’s going in the opposite direction for The Color Purple. The Christmas Day release has been screening in earnest for the last three weeks but it’s struggled outside of its HCA showing yesterday. Missing both NBR and AFI top 10 lists is a pretty significant red flag for a film that normally should have done well there, especially AFI which doesn’t allow heavily non-US productions. That’s not to say it’s out entirely, it’s still very early, but something has to happen for it as there are several hungry contenders with already more to show, like May December, All of Us Strangers and Anatomy of a Fall.

We also have the 20 finalists that will compete for the Visual Effects Oscar, the 33 films eligible for Animated Feature, 167 for Documentary Feature and 88 for International Feature Film. Those shortlists of 15 titles will be revealed on December 21, 2023. Oscar nominations are set for January 23, 2024.

Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations are next week, the 11th and 13th, respectively.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 96th Academy Awards on Friday, December 8, 2023.

Best Picture

• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• Maestro (Netflix)
• American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion)
• Past Lives (A24)
• The Zone of Interest (A24)
• The Color Purple (Warner Bros)

Director

• Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Jonathan Glazer– The Zone of Interest (A24)

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix)
• Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix)
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion)

Best Actress

• Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix)
• Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
• Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros)

Supporting Actor

• Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• Charles Melton – May December (Netflix)

Supporting Actress

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Jodie Foster – NYAD (Netflix)
• Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
• Julianne Moore – May December (Netflix)

Adapted Screenplay

• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Christopher Nolan (based on the book by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin)
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Tony McNamara (based on the book by Alasdair Gray)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann)
• American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – Cord Jefferson (based on “Erasure” by Percival Everett
• All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – Andrew Haigh (based on the book by Taichi Yamada)

Original Screenplay

• Barbie (Warner Bros) – Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
• The Holdovers (Focus Features) – David Hemingson
• Past Lives (A24) – Celine Song
• Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Justin Triet and Arthur Harari
• May December (Netflix) – Samy Burch, story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik

Film Editing

• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Jennifer Lame
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Thelma Schoonmaker
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
• The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Kevin Tent
• American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) – Hilda Rasula

Cinematography

• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Hoyte van Hoytema
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Rodrigo Prieto
• Maestro (Netflix) – Matthew Libatique
• The Zone of Interest (A24) – Łukasz Żal
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Robbie Ryan

Production Design

• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Shona Heath, James Price (production designer), Zsuzsa Mihalek (set decorator)
• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
• Barbie (Warner Bros) – Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
• Maestro (Netflix) – Kevin Thompson (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator)

Costume Design

• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Holly Waddington
• Barbie (Warner Bros) – Jacqueline Durran
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – Jacqueline West
• The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – Francine Jamison-Tanchuck
• Maestro (Netflix) – Mark Bridges

Original Score

• Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göransson (Universal Pictures)
• Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson (Apple Original Films)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – Daniel Pemberton (Sony Pictures)
• Elemental – Thomas Newman (Walt Disney/Pixar)
• The Society of the Snow – Michael Giacchino (Netflix)

Original Song

• “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas from Barbie (Warner Bros)
• “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt from Barbie (Warner Bros)
• “Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz from Rustin (Netflix)
• “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson (Netflix)
• “The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren from Flamin’ Hot (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

Sound

• Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Maestro (Netflix)
• Ferrari (NEON)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
• The Zone of Interest (A24)

Makeup and Hairstyling

• Maestro (Netflix)
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Walt Disney Pictures/Marvel Studios)
• NYAD (Netflix)
• The Color Purple (Warner Bros)

Visual Effects

• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Marvel/Walt Disney)
• The Creator (20th Century Studios)
• Spider-Man: Across the Universe (Sony Pictures)
• The Marvels (Marvel/Walt Disney)
• Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)

Animated Feature

• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
• The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
• Elemental (Pixar)
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
• Robot Dreams (NEON)

Documentary Feature

• American Symphony (Netflix)
• 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
• Anselm (Janus Films/Sideshow)
• Silver Dollar Road (Amazon Studios)
• Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)

International Feature Film

• The Zone of Interest (UK)
• The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
• The Taste of Things (France)
• The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
• Society of the Snow (Spain)