2023 Oscar Predictions: CINEMATOGRAPHY (October)

Firstly, pour one out for anyone who isn’t Roger Deakins. The 15-time Oscar nominee and two-time winner in this category can pretty much be penciled in for his incredible work whether it’s a Best Picture nominee or on his own as film’s sole nomination. With Empire of Light, the Sam Mendes nostalgia piece revolving around a movie theater in an English seaside town in the early 1980s, the pieces fall into place quite easily for him.

Speaking of Oscar winners, Janusz Kaminski, Steven Spielberg’s longtime collaborator and a two-time winner himself, will surely get in for The Fabelmans, Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical look at his youth and period as a burgeoning filmmaker.

The year’s blockbuster will aim to take a chunk out of these nominations, both of the action and sci-fi variety. Russell Carpenter won an Oscar for James Cameron’s Titanic and takes over the camera reigns from Mauro Fiore for Avatar: The Way of Water (Fiore won the Oscar for the first Avatar film) and the cinematography branch does love the world-building collaboration of a director of photography with a visual effects team.

The first Black Panther didn’t earn a cinematography nomination (nor a Visual Effects nod) but that could change with its sequel, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which already looks to have a richer, more vivid palate than its predecessor. While Rachel Morrison is out (she was the first woman ever nominated for a Best Cinematography Oscar, for 2017’s Mudbound), stepping in is Autumn Durald Arkapaw, coming off of episodes of Marvel’s Loki series and 2018’s Teen Spirit. She could follow Ari Wegner last season (The Power of the Dog) to become only the third woman ever nominated here. Wegner could also return with The Wonder, and be the only woman ever nominated here twice.

If Top Gun: Maverick is the Oscar marvel some think it is, don’t count out the high flying jet fighter acrobatics of Claudio Miranda (Oscar winner for 2012’s Life of Pi) and of course, last season’s winner here, Greig Fraser (Dune), could be back with the newest iteration of Batman that stars Robert Pattinson, The Batman.

What to make of the pair of this year’s ‘desaturated look’ films Women Talking and Emancipation? Both films feature heavily muted color, sometimes to the point of appearing like sepia or almost black & white. While online discourse around the artistic choices has been quite mixed, the Academy might tell a different story. Definitively black & white films have done quite well here recently, with 2018’s Cold War, 2019’s The Lighthouse and 2021’s The Tragedy of Macbeth all receiving nominations, and 2018’s Roma and 2020’s Mank winning. It’s a bit of a David and Goliath between these two lensers, however. Luc Montpellier (Women Talking) has no awards pedigree to speak of while Robert Richardson (Emancipation) is a 10-time nominee and three-time winner and with branches like this one, names get in.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Cinematography for October.

1. The Fabelmans – Janusz Kamiński (Universal Pictures)
2. Empire of Light – Roger Deakins (Searchlight Pictures)
3. Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) – Darius Khondji (Netflix)
4. Emancipation – Robert Richardson (Apple Original Films)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend (Netflix)

6. Avatar: The Way of Water – Russell Carpenter (20th Century Studios)
7. The Batman – Greig Fraser (Warner Bros)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Walt Disney/Marvel)
9. Top Gun: Maverick – Claudio Miranda (Paramount Pictures)
10. Babylon – Linus Sandgren (Paramount Pictures)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Amsterdam – Emmanuel Lubezki (20th Century Studios)
The Banshees of Inisherin – Ben Davis (Searchlight Pictures)
Blonde – Chayse Irvin (Netflix)
Decision to Leave – Kim Ji-yong (MUBI)
Devotion – Erik Messerschmidt (Sony Pictures)
Don’t Worry Darling – Matthew Libatique (Warner Bros)
Elvis – Mandy Walker (Warner Bros)
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Larkin Seiple (A24)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Steve Yedlin (Netflix)
Nope – Hoyte van Hoytema (Universal Pictures)
RRR – K.K. Senthil Kumar (Variance Films)
TÁR – Florian Hoffmeister (Focus Features)
Till – Bobby Bukowski (UAR/Orion Pictures)
Triangle of Sadness – Fredrik Wenzel (NEON)
White Noise – Lol Crawley (Netflix)
The Woman King – Polly Morgan (Columbia/Tri-Star)
Women Talking – Luc Montpellier (UAR/Orion Pictures)
The Wonder – Ari Wegner (Netflix)