2024 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (July)

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Not a lot of movement in the screenplay categories this month; Apple’s Killers of the Flower Moon and Universal’s Oppenheimer should be able to maintain top 2 status and do so at a safe distance from their competition and, other than A24’s The Zone of Interest and Sony’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, are the only major contenders that have been seen yet.

The first trailer for Focus Features’ The Holdovers seems like the sure bet many of us thought and it feels in lockstep with A24’s Past Lives in the top 2 for Original Screenplay once again. Warner Bros’ Barbie ekes up into the top 5 but this category feels much more competitive than adapted.

With the WGA strike ongoing and the SAG-AFTRA strike now in place since last month’s predictions, from an awards standpoint it’s going to be difficult to know how this season will truly play out. It seems unlikely the strikes will find proper resolution by the time Venice and Telluride kick off at the end of next month, what those festivals will look like in terms of films outside of what’s been announced so far, or if studios will start pulling some of their intended 2023 fall and winter releases and hold them for 2024, much like during the height of theater closures during the pandemic where several film moved into the next year.

With that, predictions will have a semblance of ‘normalcy,’ with existing dates and details until changes are revealed, but the main hope from me and everyone at AwardsWatch is unequivocally that writers and actors are able to secure contracts that value their work both artistically and financially to them, full stop.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for July 2023.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
2. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24)
5. Dune Part Two (Warner Bros)
6. Priscilla (A24)
7. The Nickel Boys (MGM/UAR/Orion Pictures)
8. The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
9. The Killer (Netflix)
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases: The Actor (NEON), Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate), The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios). BlackBerry (IFC Films), The Boys in the Boat (MGM), Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics), Dumb Money (Sony Pictures), Earth Mama (A24), Eileen (NEON), Ferrari (NEON), Firebrand (MGM), Foe (Amazon Studios), Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics), Nyad (Netflix), Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Mothers’ Instinct (NEON), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Society of the Snow (Netflix), Spaceman (Netflix), The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures), Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Collaboration (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Lee (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Without Blood (TBD)

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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Holdovers (Focus Features)
2. Past Lives (A24)
3. Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
5. Barbie (Warner Bros)
6. Maestro (Netflix)
7. May December (Netflix)
8. The Iron Claw (A24)
9. Air (Amazon Studios)
10. Fair Play (Netflix)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases: Asteroid City (Focus Features), Blitz (Apple Original Films), Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures), The Burial (Amazon Studios), Cassandro (Amazon Studios), Challengers (MGM), La Chimera (NEON), Civil War (A24), Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features), Fingernails (Apple Original Films), Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios), The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS), A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics), Rustin (Netflix), Shirley (Netflix), Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures), A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), A Different Man (TBD), Hitman (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD)