FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE, INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

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Last week, the Annie Awards threw Walt Disney and Pixar by snubbing them in the top category for the first time ever. Neither Wish (Disney) nor Elemental (Pixar) made the cut in another blow to the animation houses after recent box office failures. I feel like the animation branch of the Academy will still be on board with at least Elemental but if not it would be rather seismic; we haven’t had a year without a Disney and/or Pixar film here since 2011. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron are obviously the safest bets here and I’d say Annie Award leader Nimona is as well. The last two spots are quite open though. The very long-titled blockbusters Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and The Super Mario Bros. Movie have amassed box office and precursors galore, including nominations from Annie, the BAFTA longlist and PGA. It’s most likely between those and Elemental and Robot Dreams to round out the likely Oscar top 5.

Documentary Feature has a wealth of precursors from guilds to critics that offer a lot of possibilities but not often a lot of conclusion. Cinema Eye Honors winners have a very good record of scoring an Oscar nomination and this year 32 Sounds won. But it’s also a film that didn’t show up anywhere else; no BAFTA shortlist, International Documentary Association, Critics Choice or PGA. Speaking of PGA, the last three PGA winners have won the Oscar (after a three year stint of the PGA winner being snubbed by the Academy even for a nomination) and there are only three films on the shortlist that fall into that territory: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony and Beyond Utopia. All three were also nominated at Critics Choice where the winner was Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. After a brief respite with Summer of Soul, the CCA curse came back last year when Good Night Oppy won and missed out on a nomination. Will it happen again? I feel like it will. Still is the overwhelming critics favorite and that branch really loves to push against that. Outside of that top three it’s a pretty open race and very competitive but I’m going with Four Daughters and The Eternal Memory to round out the Oscar five.

Even with Anatomy of a Fall not eligible for International Feature Film – it’s been the runaway critics and Golden Globe winner this season – it’s an extraordinarily competitive year in this category. While we’re once again probably going to have a very Eurocentric lineup, contenders from Mexico (Tótem), Tunisia (Four Daughters), Morocco (The Mother of All Lies) and Bhutan (The Monk and the Gun) will all aim to shake that up. Bhutan just did a few years ago with its equally catchy title A Yak in the Classroom. The Zone of Interest (UK) and Society of the Snow (Spain) are clear frontrunners here with BAFTA longlist, Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations. Germany and Denmark’s nomination history are substantial and France has more nominations than any other country in the world. But this ever-changing branch does reach outside of the comfort zone of the EU, to Asia, Latin America and North Africa every so often. And it’s often hard to ignore something very politically at the forefront like Ukraine’s 20 Days in Mariupol, also a top tier documentary feature contender. Although, the Russia-Ukraine war has definitely been given back burner status over the Israel-Palestine war in terms of being on the voters’ minds. I have a feeling about Armenia’s Amerikatsi showing up and it makes my final cut. There’s almost always one nominee that is other off the radar or didn’t hit any traditional precursors but gets seen by voters and those that I’ve talked to loved the film.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10. Here are my final 2024 Oscar nomination predictions in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) – Annie, BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, PGA
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – Annie, BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, PGA
3. Nimona (Netflix) – Annie, BAFTA longlist, CCA
4. Elemental (Pixar) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG, PGA
5. Robot Dreams (NEON) – Annie

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount Pictures) – Annie, BAFTA longlist, CCA, PGA 

7. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Universal Pictures) – Annie, BAFTA longlist, GG, PGA

8. Wish (Walt Disney) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG

9. Suzume (Crunchyroll) – Annie, GG

10. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist

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DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. American Symphony (Netflix) – CCA, PGA
2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS) – CCA, CEH, PGA
3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside Attractions) – CCA, PGA
4. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber) – CEH
5. The Eternal Memory (MTV Documentary Films) – CCA, CEH

6. 32 Sounds (Abramorama) – CEH

7. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple Original Films) – CCA, CEH

8. A Still Small Voice (Abramorama) 

9. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO Documentary Films) – CEH, IDA

10. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (National Geographic) – IDA

11. Apolonia, Apolonia (CAT & Docs) – IDA

12. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) – CCA

13. To Kill a Tiger (National Board of Canada)

14. In the Rearview (Film Movement)

15. Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Zeitgeist Films/Kino Lorber)

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INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. The Zone of Interest (UK) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
2. Society of the Snow (Spain) – BAFTA longlist, CCA, GG
3. The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany) – BAFTA longlist
4. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine) – BAFTA longlist
5. Amerikatsi (Armenia)

6. Fallen Leaves (Finland) – BAFTA longlist, GG

7. Perfect Days (Japan) – CCA

8. The Taste of Things (France) – BAFTA longlist, CCA

9. Four Daughters (Tunisia)

10. Tótem (Mexico)

11. The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)

12. The Promised Land (Denmark)

13. The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)

14. Io Capitano (Italy) – GG

15. Godland (Iceland)