FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: PRODUCTION DESIGN

With a powerful combination of wins from the Art Directors Guild, BAFTA and the Set Decorators Society of America, fans of The Cheesecake Factory and the Venetian in Las Vegas can finally feel seen as Poor Things and its gorgeous and garish fantasy world could be on its way to an Oscar win.

One thing about the production design precursors that has thrown things to the wolves a bit, especially this year, is the inconsistency with which groups that separate their awards into categories like period, contemporary and fantasy/sci-fi. Oppenheimer‘s Art Directors Guild win was in period film (where it beat fellow Oscar nominees Killers of the Flower Moon and Napoleon), no argument about it not belonging there. Barbie and Poor Things both competed in fantasy film there (where Poor Things won) but the Set Decorators Society of America placed Barbie in fantasy (where it won) and Poor Things in period, where it won, beating Oppenheimer. Got all that?

That isn’t to say that Poor Things has this entirely locked up. A handful of films have won ADG and BAFTA only to lose grasp of the Oscar, including the last film from Yorgos Lanthimos, 2018’s The Favourite. Just last year Babylon won BAFTA and ADG and was toppled by All Quiet on the Western Front, a much stronger film with a secret weapon; since 2016 every Production Design winner has also had a Sound nomination and only one film here fits that bill, Oppenheimer, making it the real spoiler here especially if voters are in a sweeping mood. While it’s hard to think that Barbie‘s Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer – both on their 7th nomination here – will go home empty-handed once again, and to first-time nominees, it’s quite likely going to happen.

Here are my ranked final 2024 Oscar winner predictions for Production Design.