2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR and BEST PICTURE (August)

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We’re just a week away from the fall festival kick off with Venice in August 30 and Telluride on August 31, both of which will role directly into Toronto on September 7. No rest for the wicked for those 2+ weeks.

Yesterday, I detailed the films that I think will be coming to Telluride as world premieres or from other festivals and highlighting titles that seem to have no festival appearance this season (we’ll see what AFI FEST conjures up soon) but this is really the end of the ‘early’ predictions phase because the dozens of titles we’ve been talking about as potential contenders will be seen, evaluated, graded (and degraded) with Volpi Cups, Golden Lions and People’s Choice award trophies in hand. Then we roll into the New York Film Festival, which isn’t heavy on big title world premieres but will have showcase night for Todd Haynes’s May December, Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla and Michael Mann’s Ferrari. There is still a lot of confusion and anxiety around how the SAG-AFTRA interim agreements and approvals for the casts of Priscilla (A24) and Ferrari (NEON) can promote their work at the festivals but there is also probably an optics issue that can’t be overlooked. Even if Adam Driver and Penélope Cruz or Cailee Spaeny and Jacob Elordi can show up on the red carpet…will they? Or better yet, should they? Their respective studios have been able to abide by all requests of the SAG-AFTRA contract but it would be understandable if actors instead chose the solidarity of their fellow striking performers and stayed away. Coppola will be attending Venice under the provisions of her DGA contract, alongside Priscilla Presley herself. As previously reported, Bradley Cooper – who directs, produces, co-writes and stars in Maestro (Netflix) – has opted to not attend.

After having the single best year of any studio in Oscar history, can A24 keep it going or was last year a fluke? While many studios have been able to land two Best Picture nominations in a single year, they strangely couldn’t quite get there last year despite winning every above the line Oscar (Picture, Director, all four acting, writing) plus editing and makeup, when The Whale (a double winner) didn’t make the cut, despite earning a surprise PGA nomination. So if they couldn’t last year with literally everything in their favor, what will it take to happen? It’s what has me moving the studio’s main two pushes – the summer hit Past Lives and the upcoming Cannes winner The Zone of Interest – from occupying the same space. This all points to the studio having an early hit frontrunner in Past Lives, which, in a just world, would have nominations for Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Music and Cinematography. But that early summer release (after its Sundance and Berlin bows) already feel like they’re making way for The Zone of Interest after its Cannes win and on its way to blow through multiple fall festivals with a hot button topic. Maybe they can finally get two films in the lineup but from last month this I’ve dropped Past Lives, just on the outside looking in, in several categories and Best Picture is one of them. We’ll see.

Here are my 2024 Oscar Predictions in Best Director and Best Picture as of August 2023.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
3. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24) (-)
4. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros) (-)
5. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) (-)
6. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▲)
7. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) (▼)
8. Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (-)
9. Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix) (▲)
10.  Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Next up: Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios), Wes Anderson – Asteroid City (Focus Features), Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) (▲), Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part Two (Warner Bros), Michael Mann – Ferrari (NEON), David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix), Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi – Nyad (Netflix), Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) (▼), Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Sofia Coppola – Priscilla (A24), J.A. Bayona – Society of the Snow (Netflix)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:

• Duke Johnson – The Actor (NEON)
• Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Matthew Johnson – BlackBerry (IFC Films)
• Steve McQueen – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Reinaldo Marcus Green – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
• The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• George Clooney – The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
• Maggie Betts – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Roger Ross Williams – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
• Alice Rohrwacher – La Chimera (NEON)
• Alex Garland – Civil War (A24)
• Craig Gillespie – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Christos Nikou – Fingernails (Apple Original Films) 
• Karim Aïnouz – Firebrand (MGM)
• Garth Davis – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Matt Brown – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Sam Esmail – Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
• Jonathan Kent – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
• Benoît Delhomme – Mothers’ Instinct (NEON)
• Taika Waititi – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) 
• RaMell Ross – The Nickel Boys (MGM)
• Maryam Keshavarz – The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix)
• Johan Renck – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Joaquim Dos Santos/Kemp Powers/Justin K. Thompson – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
• Anh Hung Tran – The Pot au Feu/The Taste of Things (IFC Films)
• Molly Gordon and Nick Lieberman – Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
• A.V. Rockwell – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
• Angelina Jolie – Without Blood (Fremantle)
• Paul King – Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Ellen Kuras – Lee (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)

BEST PICTURE

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
3. The Zone of Interest (A24) (▲)
4. Maestro (Netflix) (▲)
5. Barbie (Warner Bros) (▲)
6. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▲)
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features) (-)
8. The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
9. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▲)
10.  May December (Netflix) (▲)

Next up: Air (Amazon Studios); Asteroid City (Focus Features), The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) (▲), Dune Part Two (Warner Bros), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Nyad (Netflix), Past Lives (A24) (▼), Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures), Priscilla (A24), Rustin (Netflix) (▲), Society of the Snow (Netflix) (▲)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:

• The Actor (NEON)
• The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• BlackBerry (IFC Films)
• Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
• The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
• The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
• La Chimera (NEON)
• Civil War (A24)
• Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Ferrari (NEON)
• Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Firebrand (MGM)
• Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Iron Claw (A24) (▼)
• The Killer (Netflix) (▼)
• Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
• Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
• Mothers Instinct (NEON)
• Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• The Nickel Boys (MGM)
• The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Pot-au-Feu/The Taste of Things (IFC Films)
• Spaceman (Netflix)
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) (▼)
• Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
• A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
• Without Blood (Fremantle)
• Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lee (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)