2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR and BEST PICTURE (July)

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With Toronto and Venice lineups announced and Telluride in a month’s time the fall festival season is taking shape in the midst of the ongoing WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes as rumors fly about studios pulling 2023 releases to avoid the lack of star promotion for their films. And in fact, Luca Guadagnino’s tennis drama Challengers did just that; MGM yanked the film from its Venice Film Festival opening night slot and volleyed it all the way to April 2024.

Toronto will see world premieres of the long-delayed Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) from Taika Waititi, Craig Gillespie’s Dumb Money (Sony Pictures), Lee from Ellen Kuras (which has yet to secure U.S. distribution) and Pain Hustlers (Netflix) from David Yates, it will have a handful of titles that, based on premiere designation, we’ll see at Telluride first, like George C. Wolfe’s Rustin (Netflix), Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (Focus Features), Ethan Hawke’s Wildcat (which has yet to secure U.S. distribution) and NYAD (Netflix) from Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin.

Venice looks to outshine TIFF with very high-profile titles like Bradley Cooper’s Maestro (Netflix), Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla (from A24 and is also the NYFF Centerpiece film, where Todd Haynes’ May December (Netflix) will open the fest), Michael Mann’s Ferrari (NEON), Origin (Netflix, formerly titled Caste) from Ava DuVernay and Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) from Yorgos Lanthimos (which, incidentally, was just moved from its September berth to a new early December opening in the U.S.).

NEON and A24, the two top tier indie studios in Hollywood are mounting what looks to be the Barbenheimer of the festival circuit this season with NEON’s Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall and A24’s Cannes Prize winner The Zone of Interest riding side by side at both Telluride and Toronto this September. A24 won its second Best Picture Oscar this last season with Everything Everywhere All At Once (after 2016’s Moonlight) and NEON struck gold with 2019’s Parasite.

Speaking of Barbenheimer, the moniker’s namesakes, Barbie and Oppenheimer, just blew up the box office this summer, both far exceeding individual expectations with $356M and $180M globally, respectively. Combine stellar reviews for both and you have two non-festival contenders already in the bag where some fall/winter films like Apple’s Napoleon and Warner Bros’ The Color Purple and Dune Part Two likely going to the non-festival route. These successes could prove undeniable for either or both Greta Gerwig and Christopher Nolan but it’s the latter who jumps out in front.

As the WGA strike is ongoing and the SAG-AFTRA strike is now in place since last month’s predictions, from an awards standpoint it’s going to be difficult to know how this season will truly play out. It seems unlikely the strikes will find proper resolution by the time Venice and Telluride kick off at the end of next month, what those festivals will look like in terms of films outside of what’s been announced so far, or if studios will start pulling some of their intended 2023 fall and winter releases and hold them for 2024, much like during the height of theater closures during the pandemic where several film moved into the next year.

With that, predictions will have a semblance of ‘normalcy,’ with existing dates and details until changes are revealed, but the main hope from me and everyone at AwardsWatch is unequivocally that writers and actors are able to secure contracts that value their work both artistically and financially to them, full stop.

Here are my 2024 Oscar Predictions in Best Director and Best Picture as of July 2023.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – Cannes
3. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24) – Cannes, TIFF
4. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros)
5. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – TIFF
6. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – Venice
7. Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) – Sundance
8. Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
9. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Cannes, TIFF
10. Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – Telluride

Other top contenders: Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios) – SXSW; Wes Anderson – Asteroid City (Focus Features) – Cannes, Alice Rohrwacher – La Chimera (NEON) – Cannes, TIFF; Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) – TIFF; Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part Two (Warner Bros); Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw (A24); David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix) – Venice, Ellen Kuras – Lee (TBD) – TIFF; Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix) – Cannes, NYFF; Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures); Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi – Nyad (Netflix) – TIFF; Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Venice; Sofia Coppola – Priscilla (A24) – Venice, NYFF; Joaquim Dos Santos/Kemp Powers/Justin K. Thompson – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:

• Duke Johnson – The Actor (NEON)
• Jeff Nichols – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Matthew Johnson – BlackBerry (IFC Films)
• Steve McQueen – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Reinaldo Marcus Green – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
• The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• George Clooney – The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
• Maggie Betts – The Burial (Amazon Studios) – TIFF
• Roger Ross Williams – Cassandro (Amazon Studios) – Sundance
• Alex Garland – Civil War (A24)
• Ethan Coen – Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
• Craig Gillespie – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures) – TIFF
• Michael Mann – Ferrari (NEON) – Venice
• Christos Nikou – Fingernails (Apple Original Films) – TIFF
• Karim Aïnouz – Firebrand (MGM)
• Garth Davis – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Matt Brown – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Sam Esmail – Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
• Jonathan Kent – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
• Benoît Delhomme – Mothers’ Instinct (NEON)
• Taika Waititi – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) – TIFF
• RaMell Ross – The Nickel Boys (MGM)
• Maryam Keshavarz – The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix) – Telluride, TIFF
• John Ridley – Shirley (Netflix)
• J.A. Bayona – Society of the Snow (Netflix) – TIFF
• Johan Renck – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Molly Gordon and Nick Lieberman – Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures) – Sundance
• A.V. Rockwell – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)
• Angelina Jolie – Without Blood (Fremantle)
• Paul King – Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), The Pot au Feu (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD) – TIFF

BEST PICTURE

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – Cannes
3. The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24) – Cannes, TIFF
5. Maestro (Netflix) – Venice
6. Barbie (Warner Bros)
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Telluride, TIFF
8. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Cannes, TIFF
9. Past Lives (A24) – Sundance, Berlin
10. Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Other top contenders: Air (Amazon Studios) – SXSW; Asteroid City (Focus Features), La Chimera (NEON) – Cannes; Dune Part Two (Warner Bros); The Iron Claw (A24), The Killer (Netflix) – Venice; Lee (TBD) – TIFF; May December (Netflix) – Cannes, NYFF; Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures); Nyad (Netflix) – TIFF; Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – Venice; Priscilla (A24) – Venice, NYFF; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases:

• The Actor (NEON)
• The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• BlackBerry (IFC Films)
• Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures)
• Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
• The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• The Boys in the Boat (Amazon Studios)
• The Burial (Amazon Studios) – TIFF
• Cassandro (Amazon Studios) – Sundance
• Civil War (A24)
• Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
• Dumb Money (Sony Pictures) – TIFF
• Ferrari (NEON) – Venice
• Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Firebrand (MGM)
• Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Killer (Netflix) – Venice
• Leave the World Behind (Netflix)
• Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
• Mothers Instinct (NEON)
• Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures) – TIFF
• The Nickel Boys (MGM)
• The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
• Rustin (Netflix) – TIFF
• Shirley (Netflix)
• Society of the Snow (Netflix) – Venice
• Spaceman (Netflix)
• Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures) – Sundance
• A Thousand and One (Focus Features) – Sundance
• Without Blood (Fremantle)
• Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: The Book of Solutions (TBD), Il Capitano (TBD), Alonso Ruizpalacios – La Cocina (TBD), Conclave (TBD), Gonzo Girl (TBD), Joika (TBD), Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Lee (TBD) – TIFF, Lost in the Night (TBD), Memory (TBD), The New Boy (TBD), One Life (TBD), The Outrun (TBD), The Pot au Feu (TBD), Wicked Little Letters (TBD)