FINAL 2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR

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With this year’s RRR – Robert Downey Jr., Ryan Gosling and Robert De Niro – firmly in place, like so many categories (especially acting) it’s the hunt for last two spots that finds the real race at this stage.

Earlier in the season it seemed like Poor Things co-stars Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo, both previous multiple nominees, would walk arm in arm to Oscar nomination morning but the precursors have told a different story with Dafoe earning Globe and SAG nods and Ruffalo with Globe and Critics Choice. Then they both got blanked by BAFTA, who went outside the box with three contenders who had yet to earn anything: Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers) and Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers). While the BAFTA voting process, which ensure three of the six nominees come from the voting branch at large and three from a small jury of 10, can be pointed to in all the acting categories to help identify certain snubs or surprises, it can also shine a light on the strength of a performer or a film at the right time, or the decline of one.

In this case I think the rise of Dominic Sessa makes a lot of sense. The Holdovers continues to perform strongly, with Da’Vine Joy Randolph the runaway in supporting actress and Paul Giamatti making a real play for a best actor win. Sessa is a newcomer, this is his first film, but a real co-lead and making appearances everywhere at every event, his star is ascending dramatically at exactly the right time.

While I think there’s a case to be made for Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction, who comes in with Critics Choice and SAG nods, it does feel like his film has faded somewhat in the light of The Holdovers. Melton (May December), who should have been a shoe-in here, suffered fatal blows missing SAG and the BAFTA longlist entirely. Not completely out of it but not where he was just a month ago. Mescal and Elordi, while both great in their films, are probably too outside to be surprise mentions on Tuesday morning and if only one of Dafoe or Ruffalo make it in I’m siding with Dafoe. Playing the more sympathetic and less comic of the two roles will give him a slight edge when voters already have a goofy comic performance in Gosling to nominate.

Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my final 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor.

1. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
2. Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
3. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG
4. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, SAG
5. Dominic Sessa – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA

6. Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios) – CCA, SAG

7. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG

8. Charles Melton – May December (Netflix) – CCA, GG

9. Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA

10. Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA